On a particularly silent night of the 13^th day of December, 2020, a decidedly highly guarded Manu Chandaria’s home that is nestled within the leafy neighborhoods of Muthaiga was stirred into unwarranted drama. When things settled, the occupants had suffered more than just emotional and psychological turmoil – some KES 600,000 and jewelry of unknown value was stolen. Essentially, the all too calm and imaginably highly protected neighborhood that is home to some of the most powerful individuals in the nation, including the residence of the US embassy shared in the disturbance, albeit in part.

It was reported by Citizen TV during prime time news on Monday,14th December 2020 that the burglary saw eight thugs gain entry into Manu’s home without as much as a struggle, stripped naked the two G4S guards manning the gate, then forced them into some “kind” of clothing and tied them up. The thugs then proceeded to “look for” a lone AP officer who was reportedly sleeping somewhere, disarmed him of his loaded G3 rifle before stripping him to his boxers. The officer was unluckily left in his knickers, missing out on the “favor” the G4S guards had so graciously received. Allegedly, the thugs then approached the third guard who was handling a canine and “asked” him to subdue the dog before he was treated to the same fate as his mates at the gate. Lastly, it was reported that the thugs gained entry, this time noisily through the residence’s backdoor. It is the noise that reportedly woke up the billionaire Mr. Manu, who then responded by raising alarm which homed in a response of sorts. In the ensuing moment, the thugs reached safes, stole money and jewelry before disappearing into Karura forest nearby after a short and fierce gun battle.

Tuesday’s Nation newspaper reported a redacted version of the story, indicating some variances – there were seven thugs instead of eight reported by Citizen, and the AP’s G3 rifle with 17 rounds was reportedly found abandoned in a nearby bush by recce operators that responded to the incident, among other details. One can hazard a guess that these “bounty” hunters may have been inspired by the “Burglar Bunch,” rather fancifully called the “Hollywood Hills Burglars”, a group of convicted thieves consisting of seven teenagers and young adults based in and around Calabasas, California who burgled the homes of several celebrities over a period believed to have been between October 2008 through August 2009 in the USA.

The diagnosis

Whereas my diagnostic analysis may be lacking in the full plentitude of the facts on the ground, and the competing factors as regards the risk profile of this residence vis-a-vis the reported applicable security and safety measures, it is NOT cheaply speculative with my critical analyses and breakdown of the evidenced outcomes as regards what may have gone wrong. Join me in a swim to the source of this river. Shall we?

Strategic Misintent: Security Risk Assessment (SRA) vis-a-vis general Lack of Optimization of Protection Efforts creating False Sense of Security

“We can evade reality, but not the consequences of evading reality,” Ayn Rand

What a disease or disorder’s treatment regime as advised by a medical doctor to a patient is, is what the product (2) of a diagnostic Security Risk Assessment (SRA) to a target, be it a residential home, principal(s) (if Close Protection/VIP protection), industrial complex etc. Wrong diagnosis leads to wrong solution(s). Equally useless is when the right diagnosis and realistic suggested solutions get ignored and/or taken in piecemeal, so much so they become worse than useless. The worst is when suggested solutions aren’t paid attention to at all.

Just as diseases like malaria, typhoid and dysentery, are transferred from person to person, so is lethargy in operationalization and implementation of the best intentioned protocols are socially transmitted. In more than just a few establishments I have been exposed to, the mere presence of “flower-vase security” posturing which is “good to see” and NOT seen to be good enough, prove inadequate against more informed – possibly acting on hot intelligence – thug-force, intruders and ill motivated elements. At Mr. Manu’s, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for employment and deployment of armed operators – there was only one armed AP deployed and he was reportedly asleep at the time – seemed to be ignored altogether. A buddy-buddy system – at least 2 operators – is the least divisional level of task organization of law enforcement officers, as it affords the all too essential all-round protection (the team checking each other’s back), optimized vigilance and operational balance – one foot up, one foot down.

The Access Control

The guiding principles of access control revolve around restricting access to ONLY those areas that then would have concentration of assets to prevent, deny, delay and defeat unwarranted access and allow access to only those “sieved” and processed to be deserving of visitation.

At Mr. Manu’s, a not so ordinary residence, the fact that thugs with such glaring signature weren’t detected early enough and decidedly acted upon, paints a picture of a very soft target. The guards seemed totally regressed under hypnosis with the picture painted of them being tied up by the intruders being a surplus to necessity.

Operational Mutuality among protection efforts.

The products of an expertly done SRA should provide for baseline protection efforts and have layered mitigation regimes that synergize shared responsibilities, if operational overlaps so that one or a few systems suffering compromise will meet or attract other assets that kick in to prevent adverse effects on the whole target. It is clear that the advancing thug-force gained entry at Mr. Manu’s effortlessly as there was no signs of break-in, searched for the reportedly asleep armed officer, subdued the dog handler and his canine, before accessing the residence.

In a scalable protection regime, it would be imagined that the armed officer would have responded with accurate/effective fire from a place of tactical advantage to neutralize the intruders (it is reported that only one thug had a pistol) after noting a breach at the access control, or that the dog handler would have set loose his canine, much less raise alarm for response team to respond/reinforce/counter-attack the intruder force at the compromised residence, of course all these guided by their best tactical assessment of the situation at hand.

Information Security v/s Protection of Valuables

The very fact that the thugs went for jewelry means that they were very smart – jewelry is largely untraceable, easy to carry and fetches a premium when sold or converted into money. Whereas donning these external trappings cannot be concealed as we go about our lives, it would be prudent to keep the same in secret spots in our homes, possibly also deceptively, have a set of low-value or fake replica in less “hidden” places just in case you suffer a break-in. This simple “deception plan” may pay huge dividends in protecting the real treasures. Very critical as well, is to deny treasured information about such valuables as to their value, storage from persons that may use the vital information for ulterior motive.

Psychological Dissonance: The Suggestibility and Credulity of Kenyans

“Man’s basic vice, the source of all his evils, is the act of un-focusing his mind, the suspension of his consciousness, which is not blindness, but the refusal to see, not ignorance, but the refusal to know.”

— Ayn Rand

One of our very peculiar characteristics as Kenyans is an excessive and contagious suggestibility which explains the rapid turning of sentiments of criminals’ activities into definite direction of thought and acceptance of events. This is because as a people we are in a state of expectant attention which renders suggestion easy. The moment something is suggested to us; it implants itself immediately in the brains of all who hear it. It immediately becomes an accomplished fact. In a similar way we were quick to believe that a man happened to overhear a “commotion” at KEMSA (Kenya Medical Supplies Authority) and ended up walking home with some tender worth millions.

It’s hardly surprising we’d be invited to believe that the guards at Mr. Manu’s were stripped naked and then got dressed up in some “Christmas” regalia by the thugs. The power of words is bound up with the images they evoke, though they almost always are independent of their real significance. Words whose sense is the most ill-defined are sometimes those that possess the most influence.

Just to illustrate, the guards reported that they were “stripped” – what a perfect choice of words – is meant to evoke sympathy from those who would believe and imagine how humiliating it is to be stripped and left suffering from “extreme cold” at Mr. Manu’s.  Then again this can’t be true as it is a useless addition, if an amorous overreach to operational objectives of thugs who’d primarily be concerned with hitting fast, and disappearing even faster.

Equally, an armed AP getting “disarmed” immediately paints a picture of complete empowerment. We imagine a rambo-style assault that left him at the mercy of a savage thug-force. Our minds are dragged away from closely scrutinizing why it would appear that he was openly basking in the moonlight, asleep at the switch, goofing off. Being without a phone for a week is also very suspect of an officer who values his work and his safety as that is a critical piece of special equipment that he’d use to reach help if need be, among other normal undertakings.

When we hear of “leafy suburbs”, we immediately imagine a fortresses that are also guarded in part by equally fearsome souls whose entire lives are dedicated to the protection of those living in those fortresses. However, we are “shocked” at how easy it was to “break into” Mr. Manu’s residence. As a matter of fact, several presumably “highly protected” establishments can get overrun in the same style. The whole point sometimes is in DARING as the 22 SAS well-worn motto says, “Who Dares Wins!”.

Lastly, we have a dog and its handler that seemed to have been atop a tree, counting stars from where they were “invited” down, subdued and “stripped” as well, before getting tied up. Subduing a dog takes a lot more than just “asking” the handler to “keep it away” given that trained dogs independently size up aggressors through their noses long before their handler would see the aggressor(s)…dog’s sense of smell is about 700 times stronger that humans.

In summary, the whole scenario played out in a manner that presents us with a cocktail of tactical and technical nonsense that’s dramatized in a very obtuse way by those charged with security at Mr. Manu’s. 

Fixing the Broken Compass, onwards and upwards.

It is very clear therefore, that when all is said and done, machines applied and equipment employed, the human element, and the motives involved remain the single most important factor in the grand scheme of things in all faces and facets of life. Realistic analyses of situations and renegotiation of our ways and means with thoroughness in planning, application of forethought and with a moderate sense of vigilance allows us to lock step with life’s demands. This can be summarized as Total Situational Awareness.